一月在职联考冲刺复习英语阅读理解及答案解析1

　　For all his vaunted talents, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has never had much of a reputation as an economic forecaster. In fact, he shies away from making the precise-to-the-decimal-point predictions that many other economists thrive on. Instead, he owes his success as a monetary policymaker to his ability to sniff out threats to the economy and manipulate interest rates to dampen the dangers he perceives.

　　Now, those instincts are being put to the test. Many Fed watchers—and some policymakers inside the central bank itself—are beginning to wonder whether Greenspan has lost his touch. Despite rising risks to the economy from a swooning stock market and soaring oil prices that could hamper growth, the Greenspan-led Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted to leave interest rates unchanged on Sept.24. But in a rare dissent, two of the Fed’s 12 policymakers broke ranks and voted for a cut in rates—Dallas Fed President Robert D. McTeer Jr. and central bank Governor Edward M.Gramlich.

　　The move by McTeer, the Fed’s self-styled “Lonesome Dove”, was no surprise. But Gramlich’s was. This was the first time that the monetary moderate had voted against the chairman since joining the Fed’s board in 1997. And it was the first public dissent by a governor since 1995.

　　Despite the split vote, it’s too soon to count the maestro of monetary policy out. Greenspan had good reasons for not cutting interest rates now. And by acknowledging in the statement issued after the meeting that the economy does indeed face risks, Greenspan left the door wide open to a rate reduction in the future. Indeed, former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley thinks chances are good that the central bank might even cut rates before its next scheduled meeting on Nov.6, the day after congressional elections.

　　So why didn’t the traditionally risk-averse Greenspan cut rates now as insurance against the dangers dogging growth? For one thing, he still thinks the economy is in recovery mode. Consumer demand remains buoyant and has even been turbocharged recently by a new wave of mortgage refinancing. Economists reckon that homeowners will extract some $100 billion in cash from their houses in the second half of this year. And despite all the corporate gloom, business spending has shown signs of picking up, though not anywhere near as strongly as the Fed would like.

　　Does that mean that further rate cuts are off the table? Hardly. Watch for Greenspan to try to time any rate reductions to when they’ll have the most psychological pop on business and investor confidence. That’s surely no easy feat, but it’s one that Greenspan has shown himself capable of more than once in the past. Don’t be surprised if he surprises everyone again.

　　1. Alan Greenspan owes his reputation much to .

　　A. his successful predictions of economy

　　B. his timely handling of interest rates

　　C. his unusual economic policies

　　D. his unique sense of dangers

　　2. It can be inferred from the passage that .

　　A. instincts most often misguide the monetary policies

　　B. Greenspan has lost his control of the central bank

　　C. consensus is often the case among Fed’s policymakers

　　D. Greenspan wouldnt tolerate such a dissent

　　3. Gramley’s remarks are mentioned to indicate that .

　　A. Greenspan didnt rule out the possibility of a future rate reduction

　　B. Greenspan’s monetary policy may turn out to be a failure

　　C. Greenspan’s refusal to cut rates now was justified

　　D. Greenspan will definitely cut the rates before Nov.6

　　4. From the fifth paragraph, we can learn that .

　　A. economy is now well on its way to recovery

　　B. economists are uncertain about consumer demand

　　C. corporate performance is generally not encouraging

　　D. businesses have been investing the way the Fed hoped

　　5. The author seems to regard Greenspan’s manipulation of interest rates with .

　　A. disapproval B. doubt C. approval D. admiration

　　译文：

　　美联储主席格林斯潘才智卓越，然而他并不是经济预测大师。实际上，他并不喜欢进行精确的经济预测，而不少其他经济学家却借此发迹。相反，作为一个货币政策制定者，格林斯潘的成功是由于他能够嗅出经济所面临的威胁，从而调控利率，消除他所感受到的危险。

　　现在，这些才能正经受着考验。许多美联储的观察家——包括中央银行内部的一些政策指定者——都琢磨着格林斯潘是不是已才思不再。尽管经济面临着诸多危险，证券低迷，油价飙升，经济遭阻，但在9月24日，格林斯潘所领导的FOMC却决定维持利率不变。然而出现了罕见的分歧，美联储的12位立法者中有两人打破惯例，主张降低利率——美联储驻达拉斯总裁Robert D.McTeer Jr.及中央银行总裁Edward M.Gramlich。

　　美联储内部自称“孤独的鸽子”的Mc Teer的这一举动不令人吃惊，而Gramlich的举动令人费解，作为一个货币温和派，这是他自1997年加入美联储委员会以来第一次投票反对主席，这也是自1995年以来中行总裁第一次公开表示自己的不同观点。

　　尽管出现了投票分歧，现在就认为货币大师输了还为时过早，格林斯潘是有充分理由不立即降息的。在会后发表的申明中，格林斯潘承认经济有危险，这就说明他并没有将未来降息的可能全部封死。事实上，前美联储主席Lyle Gramley就认为，11月6日， 即国会选举日后一天，中央银行在下次例行会议上会宣布降息。

　　那么，为什么传统上反对风险的格林斯潘这次却不再降息，从而防止紧随经济增长而出现的危险呢?首先，他仍然认为经济处于复苏之中，消费需求强劲，并随新一波的抵押投资而进一步加码。经济学家认为，在今年的后半年，地产拥有者能从房产中获得一千亿美元的收入。尽管整体经济灰暗，但商业投资已有回升的迹象，虽然不如美联储所希望的那么强劲。

　　这是否意味着进一步的降低利率不再可能?不。注意格林斯潘，他总是选择对经济和投资者信心影响最大的时刻宣布降低利率。这绝非易事，而格林斯潘已不止一次做到了这一点，如果他再有惊人之举，大家不应吃惊。

　　1.【答案】B

　　【解析】这是一道细节题。根据首段末句可知，Greenspan总能借助利率的调整消除他所感觉到的对经济的威胁，即能在威胁出现之前“及时的”行动。故B为正确答案。

　　2.【答案】C

　　【解析】这是一道推论题。根据第二段末句“ in a rare dissent...”可知，美联储的决策者们多数情况下是意见一致的。故C为正确项。

　　3.【答案】A

　　【解析】这是一道例证题。在第四段末尾，作者引用Gramley的评述无非是证明其前面的观点：Greenspan并没有将降息的可能完全排除。故A为正确答案，“rule out”意为“排除”。

　　4.【答案】C

　　【解析】这是一道简单推论题。根据第五段末句“尽管整体经济很是阴暗……”，可以认定，C项应是正确答案。

　　5.【答案】D

　　【解析】这是一道态度题。根据全文，尤其末段的描述，可见作者对Greenspan的利率操作非常钦佩，故D为正确答案。C项语气不够。

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